Business News · Grocery
Publix sales: why the numbers slipped
What Publix’s third quarter 2026 report shows, in plain numbers from the company’s own filing.
The Publix sales drop that shoppers and employee-owners are searching for is a decline in comparable store sales, not total sales. In its Nov. 2, 2026 report, Publix Super Markets said total sales rose 1% to $15.5 billion in the third quarter, but sales at stores open at least a year fell 0.6% and net earnings fell 9.9%.
Publix is employee-owned, so its results matter to more than outside investors. Its stock is not traded on an exchange; the company sets the price, and many of its associates hold shares. When the price falls, so does the value of those holdings.
Publix third quarter 2026 results
For the quarter ended Sept. 26, 2026, Publix reported:
- Sales: $15.5 billion, up 1% from $15.4 billion in 2025.
- Comparable store sales: down 0.6%.
- Net earnings: $1.07 billion, down 9.9% from $1.18 billion.
- Earnings per share: $0.33, down from $0.37.
- Excluding investment swings: earnings of $908 million, down 7.3% from $980 million, or $0.29 per share versus $0.30.
For the first nine months of 2026, sales rose 1.4% to $47.4 billion, comparable store sales fell 0.4% and net earnings slipped 1.5% to $3.5 billion.
Comparable store sales: the number behind the headlines
Comparable store sales (comps) measure sales at stores open long enough to compare with last year. They strip out the boost from new stores, so they show whether existing customers are spending more or less. Publix’s total sales still grew because it keeps opening stores: Grocery Dive reports that through Sept. 26, Publix opened 23 stores, remodeled 78 and closed 12, citing an SEC filing.
Publix comparable store sales by quarter, 2026
Bars show the size of the decline. Source: Publix quarterly results releases, Aug. 3 and Nov. 2, 2026. Grocery Dive calls Q3 the fifth straight quarter of slowing comps.
Why Publix sales are under pressure
Publix gave two reasons in its release.
1. Lower Medicare prices on 10 drugs
Publix said results reflect “the impact of the Medicare maximum fair price (MFP) change effective Jan. 1, 2026 which reduced drug prices for 10 drugs.” The maximum fair price comes from the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program created by the Inflation Reduction Act. The first 10 negotiated prices took effect on Jan. 1, 2026. Lower drug prices are good for patients, but they shrink the dollar sales that pharmacies record, and Publix runs pharmacies in most of its stores.
2. Tighter consumer budgets
Publix also cited “economic conditions impacting consumer spending.” CEO Kevin Murphy said: “We know many of our customers are feeling the effects of a challenging economy.” When budgets are tight, shoppers trade down to store brands, buy fewer extras or shift trips to discount grocers and warehouse clubs.
The Publix stock price fell again
Effective Nov. 1, 2026, Publix lowered its stock price from $19.60 to $18.70 per share. That followed a cut on Aug. 1, 2026 from $20.45 to $19.60. In three months the price fell 8.6% from $20.45.
Publix stock price, 2026 (set by the company)
Source: Publix Q2 and Q3 2026 results releases. Publix stock is not publicly traded.
How Q3 compares with Q2 2026
Publix second vs. third quarter 2026
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | $15.7B, up 1% | $15.5B, up 1% |
| Comparable store sales | -0.5% | -0.6% |
| Net earnings | $1.66B, up 20.5% | $1.07B, down 9.9% |
| Earnings excluding investments | $1.06B, up 1.7% | $908M, down 7.3% |
| Stores | 1,441 | about 1,450 |
Second-quarter net earnings looked strong mainly because of gains on Publix’s stock investments. Excluding those swings, both quarters show the same trend: slower sales at existing stores and thinner growth in profit.
Is Publix in trouble?
No. Publix still earned more than $1 billion in a single quarter, keeps opening stores and employs about 260,000 associates in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky, where it opened its 10th store in early October, according to Grocery Dive. The story is slowing growth, not a collapse. The question for 2027 is whether comps turn positive once the drug-price effect laps a full year.
Watch same-store sales, not just total sales: growth from new locations can hide a slowdown. Know how policy changes, such as price caps or new fees, hit your revenue line. And when customers feel squeezed, value messaging and loyalty programs matter more. Our small business budget guide shows how to plan for a softer quarter.
Common mistakes
- Saying Publix sales fell overall. Total sales rose 1%; comparable store sales fell 0.6%.
- Reading Q2 earnings as a turnaround. Investment gains drove that jump.
- Treating Publix stock like a public stock. The company sets the price; it does not trade daily.
- Blaming one cause. Publix cites both drug pricing and the economy.
- Ignoring the store count. New stores lift total sales even when existing stores slow.
Key terms
- Comparable store sales: sales at stores open long enough to compare with the prior year.
- Net earnings: profit after all costs and taxes.
- Earnings per share (EPS): net earnings divided by shares outstanding.
- Maximum fair price (MFP): the Medicare-negotiated price for selected drugs, in effect since Jan. 1, 2026 for the first 10.
- Fair value adjustment: the change in value of investments a company holds, which can swing reported profit.
The bottom line: the Publix sales drop is real at the store level, with comparable store sales down 0.6% in the third quarter of 2026, profit down 9.9% and the stock price cut to $18.70. Total sales still grew, and Publix remains highly profitable, but its own report shows customers feeling the squeeze.
Key takeaways
- Publix reported third quarter 2026 sales of $15.5 billion, up 1%, on Nov. 2, 2026.
- Comparable store sales fell 0.6%, and Grocery Dive calls it the fifth straight quarter of slowing comps.
- Net earnings fell 9.9% to $1.07 billion; earnings per share fell to $0.33 from $0.37.
- Publix blamed Medicare’s lower prices on 10 drugs and economic conditions affecting spending.
- The company cut its stock price from $19.60 to $18.70 effective Nov. 1, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Did Publix sales drop in 2026?
Comparable store sales did. In the third quarter of 2026 they fell 0.6%, while total sales rose 1% to 15.5 billion dollars because of new stores.
Why are Publix sales down?
Publix cited the Medicare maximum fair price change that lowered prices for 10 drugs starting Jan. 1, 2026, and economic conditions affecting consumer spending.
What is the Publix stock price now?
Effective Nov. 1, 2026, Publix set its stock price at 18.70 dollars per share, down from 19.60 dollars.
How much did Publix earn in the third quarter of 2026?
Net earnings were about 1.07 billion dollars, down 9.9% from about 1.18 billion dollars a year earlier.
How many stores does Publix have?
Publix says it has about 1,450 stores in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky, and about 260,000 associates.
Sources
- Publix Super Markets: Publix Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results and Stock Price (SEC Form 8-K exhibit, Nov. 2, 2026)
- Publix Super Markets: Publix Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Stock Price (SEC Form 8-K exhibit, Aug. 3, 2026)
- Grocery Dive: Publix’s comp sales slide once again (Nov. 3, 2026)
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services: Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program
- Publix Investor Relations (stockholder site)
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