Technology · Quantum
Quantum computing: why business should care now
A plain-English guide to qubits, the race to build useful machines and the encryption deadline already set.
Quantum computing uses the rules of quantum physics to process information in ways ordinary computers cannot. The machines are still experimental, but they matter to business today for one practical reason: a large enough quantum computer could break the encryption that protects websites, payments and email, and the federal government has already set deadlines to replace it.
Two things are true at once. Progress is real: Google, IBM and others have reported steady advances, and Google CEO Sundar Pichai said on Oct. 28, 2026 that Google had demonstrated “magic state cultivation” for the first time, a step on the road to error-corrected machines. And the machines are not yet doing everyday business work. No company or agency has published a date when a code-breaking quantum computer will exist.
This guide explains how quantum computers differ from the computer on your desk, what has been demonstrated with dates and sources, where the technology may help first, and the encryption steps the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) recommend starting now.
How quantum computing works, in plain English
An ordinary computer stores information in bits, each a 0 or a 1. A quantum computer uses qubits, which can be in a combination of 0 and 1 at the same time, a property called superposition. Qubits can also be entangled, so the state of one is linked to another. Algorithms designed for these properties can solve certain problems with far fewer steps than any known method on a regular computer.
The catch is noise. Qubits are fragile, and heat, vibration or stray signals cause errors. The central engineering challenge is error correction: grouping many physical qubits into one reliable logical qubit. That is why progress is now measured in error rates and logical qubits, not only in raw qubit counts.
Classical computers vs. quantum computers
| Feature | Classical computer | Quantum computer |
|---|---|---|
| Basic unit | Bit: 0 or 1 | Qubit: a combination of 0 and 1 |
| Best at | Almost every everyday task | Specific problems: simulating molecules and materials, some optimization and math problems |
| Main limit today | Some problems take impractically long | Errors from noise; few reliable logical qubits |
| Where you use it | Laptops, phones, cloud servers | Research labs, mostly reached through the cloud |
What has been demonstrated so far
Claims in this field are easy to exaggerate, so here are milestones as the companies themselves described them, with dates.
Quantum computing milestones from company announcements
| Date | Company | What it reported |
|---|---|---|
| Dec. 9, 2024 | Willow, a 105-qubit chip, ran a benchmark in under five minutes that Google estimated would take a top supercomputer about 10 septillion years; errors fell as qubits were added | |
| June 10, 2025 | IBM | Roadmap to Starling, a fault-tolerant machine in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., planned for 2029 with 200 logical qubits running 100 million quantum gates |
| Oct. 22, 2025 | Quantum Echoes ran about 13,000 times faster than the best classical algorithm on a supercomputer; Google called it the first verifiable quantum advantage | |
| Oct. 28, 2026 | First demonstration of “magic state cultivation,” per CEO Sundar Pichai’s earnings remarks |
IBM’s plan also names intermediate processors: Kookaburra in 2026, the first module to store information in error-correcting memory and process it, and Cockatoo in 2027, to link modules together. Treat roadmap dates as plans, not results.
What 13,000 times faster means (illustrative)
Illustrative arithmetic using Google’s reported 13,000x figure for one specific algorithm: 13,000 hours is about 1.5 years. It does not mean quantum computers are faster at everyday tasks.
Where quantum computing may help business first
The early uses are in science-heavy industries. Google said its Quantum Echoes work, done with the University of California, Berkeley, studied molecules of 15 and 28 atoms in a proof-of-principle nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiment, and pointed to drug discovery and materials such as polymers and battery components as possible applications.
- Chemistry and drug discovery: simulating how molecules behave and bind.
- Materials: designing batteries, catalysts and new materials.
- Optimization and finance: researchers study scheduling, routing and risk problems, though practical advantage has not been shown for most business cases.
- AI and quantum together: Google said its Gemini 4 Argon model helped nearly double the throughput of AlphaQubit, its machine-learning error-correction decoder. Our AI agents guide and Nvidia explainer cover the AI hardware side.
For a typical small business, there is nothing to buy yet. Cloud providers offer access to quantum hardware for experiments, but the near-term business task is security, covered next.
The real near-term issue: encryption
Most online security relies on public-key cryptography, such as RSA and elliptic-curve methods, to set up secure connections and verify signatures. A large, error-corrected quantum computer could break these methods. NIST warns of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, in which adversaries collect encrypted data today in order to decrypt it once quantum technology matures.
On Aug. 13, 2024, NIST finalized its first three post-quantum standards: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM) for general encryption, and FIPS 204 (ML-DSA) and FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) for digital signatures. NIST told administrators to start moving to them as soon as possible.
NIST will deprecate quantum-vulnerable public-key cryptography after 2030 and disallow its use under NIST standards and guidelines after 2035. Under Executive Order 14412 and OMB Memorandum M-26-15, the federal government’s most sensitive systems must adopt post-quantum key establishment by Dec. 31, 2030 and post-quantum digital signatures by Dec. 31, 2031. NIST says symmetric algorithms such as AES are less vulnerable and it does not expect to replace them in this migration.
Years remaining from 2026 to key post-quantum dates
Source: NIST IR 8547 (final, October 2026). NIST notes past cryptographic transitions have taken 10 to 20 years, which is why it calls the migration a current operational priority.
What a business should do now
Small businesses will get most post-quantum protection through updates from the vendors they already use: browsers, operating systems, cloud services, payment processors and VPNs. The CISA, NSA and NIST Quantum-Readiness factsheet of Aug. 21, 2023 lays out four steps that scale down to a small firm.
A quantum-readiness plan for a small business
- Make a short roadmapName an owner, a budget line and a yearly review date for encryption upgrades.
- Inventory your cryptographyList where encryption is used: website certificates, VPN, remote access, email, payment systems, backups and any software you built.
- Check the supply chainNote which vendors control each item and which data must stay confidential for many years, such as health, legal or financial records.
- Ask vendors about their plansAsk when they will support NIST’s ML-KEM and ML-DSA standards, and add the question to new contracts.
- Keep systems currentRetire hardware and software that cannot be updated; NIST says systems that cannot support post-quantum cryptography should be prioritized for replacement.
Good basic security still matters more this year than quantum risk. Keep software patched, use multi-factor sign-in and back up data; our cloud computing guide covers those basics.
Common mistakes
- Believing every headline. Check whether a claim is a company result, a roadmap or a forecast.
- Assuming it is a 2040 problem. NIST’s deprecation date is after 2030, and data stolen today can be decrypted later.
- Buying “quantum-proof” products on marketing alone. Ask which NIST standard a product implements.
- Ignoring vendors. Most of your exposure sits in software and services you buy.
- Confusing quantum computing with faster everyday computing. It targets specific problems.
Key terms
- Qubit: the basic unit of quantum information, able to hold a combination of 0 and 1.
- Logical qubit: a reliable qubit built from many error-prone physical qubits through error correction.
- Post-quantum cryptography (PQC): encryption designed to resist attacks from quantum and classical computers.
- ML-KEM (FIPS 203): NIST’s primary post-quantum standard for general encryption.
- Harvest now, decrypt later: collecting encrypted data today to decrypt once quantum computers can break it.
The bottom line: quantum computing is still a research field, but its security deadline is real. Learn the basics, treat company claims as claims, and start a simple encryption inventory and vendor conversation now so your business is ready well before NIST’s 2030 and 2035 dates.
Free help in the Sacramento region
You do not have to work through these decisions alone. SCORE Sacramento pairs owners with volunteer mentors, many of them retired executives, bankers and accountants, at no cost. The Sacramento Valley Small Business Development Center offers free one-on-one advising on financing, budgeting and financial statements. The SBA’s Sacramento District Office can explain loan programs and connect you with lenders, and community lenders such as California Capital and Opening Doors serve owners who need smaller loans or extra support. Browse our Business Resources and the free business help guide for more.
Key takeaways
- Quantum computers use qubits and are best at specific problems, not everyday computing.
- Google’s Willow chip (Dec. 2024) has 105 qubits; IBM plans a 200-logical-qubit machine in 2029.
- NIST finalized three post-quantum encryption standards on Aug. 13, 2024.
- NIST will deprecate quantum-vulnerable public-key encryption after 2030 and disallow it after 2035.
- Start now: inventory encryption, ask vendors about NIST standards and replace systems that cannot update.
Frequently asked questions
What is quantum computing in simple terms?
Quantum computing uses qubits, which can hold a combination of 0 and 1 and can be linked through entanglement. For certain problems, such as simulating molecules, this allows far fewer steps than any known method on an ordinary computer.
Can quantum computers break encryption today?
No public quantum computer can break today’s widely used encryption. NIST warns that adversaries can collect encrypted data now and decrypt it later, which is why it set deadlines to replace quantum-vulnerable methods.
What are NIST’s post-quantum deadlines?
In NIST IR 8547, finalized in October 2026, NIST says it will deprecate quantum-vulnerable public-key cryptography after 2030 and disallow it under NIST standards and guidelines after 2035.
What is Google Willow?
Willow is a 105-qubit quantum chip Google announced on December 9, 2024. Google said it showed errors falling as more qubits were added and ran a benchmark in under five minutes.
What should a small business do about quantum computing?
Follow the CISA, NSA and NIST quantum-readiness steps: make a roadmap, inventory where encryption is used, review vendors and ask them when they will support NIST’s post-quantum standards.
Sources
- NIST IR 8547: Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (final, October 2026)
- NIST: NIST releases first 3 finalized post-quantum encryption standards (Aug. 13, 2024)
- CISA, NSA and NIST: Quantum-Readiness, Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography (Aug. 21, 2023)
- Google, The Keyword: Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip (Dec. 9, 2024)
- Google, The Keyword: Our Quantum Echoes algorithm is a big step toward real-world applications (Oct. 22, 2025)
- IBM Quantum: IBM lays out clear path to fault-tolerant quantum computing (June 10, 2025)
- Google, The Keyword: Q3 2026 earnings call, remarks from our CEO (Oct. 28, 2026)
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