Small business budget: an owner building a spreadsheet budget on a laptop

Business Finance Guide · Planning

A budget is a plan for every dollar

How to build one in an afternoon and keep it useful all year.

77%of small firms faced rising costs or tariff costs (2025)
84%of firms buying abroad saw input prices rise
$488,889break-even sales in our example

A small business budget is a plan for the money you expect to earn and spend over the next year, so that you make decisions on purpose instead of by surprise.

Budgets have a bad reputation because many are built once and never opened again. A useful budget is short, based on your real numbers and reviewed every month against what actually happened. It tells you how much you can spend on hiring or marketing, when cash will be tight and how much revenue you need just to break even.

Cost pressure makes this more important. In the Federal Reserve’s 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, rising costs of goods, services and wages was the most common financial challenge, more than four in 10 firms named tariff-related costs, and 77% reported one or both. Among firms that buy inputs from outside the United States, 84% saw those prices rise in 2025.

77%faced rising costs, tariff costs or both
84%of importing firms saw input prices increase
76%of those firms passed some costs to customers
60%absorbed some of the increase

Fixed costs vs. variable costs

Start by sorting every cost into one of two groups. Fixed costs, such as rent, salaried payroll, insurance, software and loan payments, stay about the same each month regardless of sales. Variable costs, such as ingredients, inventory, shipping, card processing fees and commissions, rise and fall with sales. The split tells you how risky a slow month is and how much each extra sale is worth.

A worked example

Here is a one-year budget for the same illustrative coffee shop used across this series, with $600,000 in expected sales. Each slice is a share of revenue:

Example budget: where each sales dollar goes

$600Kplanned annual sales
  • 35%Payroll
  • 32.5%Cost of goods sold
  • 12%Rent and utilities
  • 8%Other operating costs
  • 3.5%Interest and taxes
  • 9%Profit

Illustrative example, not a benchmark for every business.

Owner writing a checklist for a small business budget
List every recurring cost before you set targets. Photo: Glenn Carstens-Peters on Unsplash

Know your break-even point

Break-even sales are the revenue at which you cover all costs and earn zero profit. The formula is fixed costs divided by gross margin. In the example, fixed costs are $330,000 a year (payroll, rent and other operating costs) and the gross margin is 67.5%, so the shop breaks even at about $488,889 in sales, or roughly $40,700 a month. Every dollar of sales above that line adds 67.5 cents of profit before interest and taxes.

Break-even sales, example

$330,000Fixed costs per year
÷
67.5%Gross margin
=
$488,889Break-even sales

Illustrative numbers.

How to build your budget in seven steps

Budget steps

  1. Pull last year’s actualsExport 12 months of your profit and loss statement by month.
  2. Forecast revenue by monthStart from last year, adjust for prices, new products and seasonality. Be conservative.
  3. List fixed costsRent, salaries, insurance, software, loan payments and the $800 California annual tax if you have an LLC or corporation.
  4. Set variable costs as a percentageTie ingredients, inventory, shipping and fees to sales.
  5. Plan one-time costsEquipment, repairs, licenses, marketing campaigns and hiring.
  6. Pay yourself and your savingsBudget owner pay, a tax set-aside and a monthly transfer to business savings.
  7. Check the cash timingTurn the budget into a monthly cash plan so big payments do not land in slow months.

Budget vs. actual: the monthly habit

The budget earns its keep in a 30-minute monthly review. Compare each line with what really happened, look at the biggest differences and decide what to change.

Example monthly review

Line Budget Actual Difference Action
Sales $50,000 $46,500 −$3,500 (7%) Add a weekday promotion
Cost of goods sold $16,250 $16,300 +$50 Prices up; review menu pricing
Payroll $17,500 $18,400 +$900 Adjust slow-hour scheduling
Rent and utilities $6,000 $6,050 +$50 None
Marketing $1,500 $900 −$600 Launch the delayed campaign
Notebook and pen for planning a small business budget
Review budget versus actual every month. Photo: Marissa Grootes on Unsplash

Plan for rising costs

  • Build a cushion: budget variable costs 2% to 5% above last year’s rate when suppliers are raising prices.
  • Review prices quarterly: in 2025, 76% of importing firms passed at least some cost increases to customers.
  • Lock in terms: ask key suppliers for fixed pricing or volume discounts.
  • Watch the margin, not only sales: a busy month with a shrinking gross margin can lose money.
Free help

SCORE Sacramento mentors and the Small Business Development Center offer free budgeting templates and one-on-one reviews. A clean budget also strengthens a loan application.

Turn the budget into decisions

A budget is most useful when it answers real questions. Can we afford a new hire in March? What happens to profit if ingredient costs rise 5%? How much can we spend on a new menu launch? Model each decision as a change to the budget and compare the result with your break-even point and cash plan. If a decision pushes a month below your cash minimum, change the timing, find savings elsewhere or line up financing first. Over time, this turns the budget from a once-a-year chore into the tool you use every time you spend money.

Budgeting for a seasonal business

If your sales swing by season, build the budget month by month, not as one annual number divided by twelve. A Sacramento landscaping company, a holiday retailer or an outdoor event business may earn most of its revenue in a few months. The budget should show those peaks and valleys, how much cash to set aside in strong months and which costs, such as seasonal staff, can flex in slow ones.

Use the budget to plan financing, too. If the slow months show a gap even with a reserve, arrange a line of credit during the strong season, when your numbers look best to a lender.

Zero-based vs. incremental budgeting

Most small businesses use incremental budgeting: last year’s numbers, adjusted up or down. It is fast and works well when the business is stable. Zero-based budgeting starts every line at zero and asks you to justify each cost. It takes longer but is a powerful way to find subscriptions, services and habits that no longer pay off. Many owners do a zero-based review every two or three years and incremental budgets in between.

Common mistakes

  • Overly optimistic sales. Budget sales conservatively and costs fully.
  • Forgetting annual and one-time costs. Insurance renewals, licenses, the $800 California tax and equipment repairs arrive in specific months.
  • Leaving out the owner. Budget your own pay and taxes.
  • Building it once. A budget nobody reviews is a guess, not a plan.

Key terms

  • Fixed costs: expenses that stay roughly the same regardless of sales volume.
  • Variable costs: expenses that rise and fall with sales.
  • Gross margin: the share of each sales dollar left after the direct cost of the product.
  • Break-even point: the sales level at which total revenue equals total costs.
  • Variance: the difference between budgeted and actual results.

The bottom line: a good small business budget is simple, built from real numbers and reviewed every month. It shows how much you can safely spend, how much you must sell and where the next problem is likely to appear.

Free help in the Sacramento region

You do not have to work through these decisions alone. SCORE Sacramento pairs owners with volunteer mentors, many of them retired executives, bankers and accountants, at no cost. The Sacramento Valley Small Business Development Center offers free one-on-one advising on financing, budgeting and financial statements. The SBA’s Sacramento District Office can explain loan programs and connect you with lenders, and community lenders such as California Capital and Opening Doors serve owners who need smaller loans or extra support. Browse our Business Resources and the free business help guide for more.

Key takeaways

  • Sort costs into fixed and variable; the split shows how risky a slow month is.
  • Break-even sales = fixed costs divided by gross margin.
  • Build the budget from last year’s actual monthly numbers and conservative revenue.
  • Review budget vs. actual every month and act on the biggest differences.
  • 77% of small firms faced rising costs or tariff costs in 2025; budget a cushion and review prices quarterly.

Frequently asked questions

How do I make a budget for a new business with no history?

Use quotes and estimates for fixed costs, industry averages and supplier prices for variable costs, and a conservative sales forecast. Update it monthly as real numbers come in.

What percentage of revenue should go to payroll?

It varies widely by industry. Service and restaurant businesses often spend a third or more of revenue on payroll; compare with your own history and industry data.

How often should a small business update its budget?

Review budget versus actual monthly and update the forecast quarterly, or sooner if sales or costs change sharply.

What is the difference between a budget and a cash flow forecast?

A budget plans revenue and expenses for the year. A cash flow forecast plans when cash actually arrives and leaves, often week by week.

What software can I use to budget?

A spreadsheet works for most small businesses. Accounting software such as QuickBooks or Xero can also store a budget and compare it with actual results automatically.

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