Artificial Intelligence · Jobs
Will AI take your job? What the data shows
Federal projections to 2035, a global employer survey and Census data on who uses AI today.
Will AI replace jobs? The best evidence available in November 2026 says artificial intelligence will remove some jobs, change most of them and create new ones, and that the losses will land hardest on routine office work. Total U.S. employment is still projected to grow over the next decade.
The question has moved from science fiction to the break room. Chatbots draft emails, AI agents book meetings and image generators produce ad graphics in seconds. Workers want to know whether their position is safe, and small business owners want to know whether to hire, retrain or automate.
This guide answers with data rather than headlines. It draws on three sources: the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Projections for 2025 to 2035, released Aug. 27, 2026; the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, a survey of more than 1,000 large employers; and the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey, which tracks how many U.S. firms use AI.
The short answer: fewer tasks, not fewer workers overall
BLS projects that U.S. employment will rise from 170.3 million in 2025 to 176.2 million in 2035, an increase of 5.9 million jobs, or 3.5%. That is slower than the 10.9% growth of 2015 to 2025, mostly because of an aging population, but it is still growth. For the first time, BLS says its projections account directly for generative AI and automation, and it is launching a new data product on occupational exposure to AI.
The agency is careful about what it does not know. Its AI factsheet says the uncertainty about potential impacts “remains very high,” and that BLS applies AI adjustments conservatively, only where research gives convincing evidence. The changes it does expect are concentrated in computer and mathematical jobs, arts and media, business administration, sales and office work, and legal services.
Projected change by major occupational group, 2025-35 (percent)
Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release, Aug. 27, 2026. Bars show the size of the change; the last three groups are projected to decline.
Which jobs AI is most likely to shrink
Office and administrative support is the clearest case. BLS projects the group to lose 752,100 jobs from 2025 to 2035, a 4.0% drop and the largest decline of any major occupational group. The release says generative AI and automation tools are expected to reduce demand for office and administrative support, arts and media, and sales occupations. Scheduling, data entry, basic correspondence and records work are exactly the tasks today’s AI tools handle well.
The World Economic Forum sees the same pattern worldwide. Cashiers and administrative assistants remain among the fastest-declining roles in its 2025 report, and graphic designers have joined that list as generative AI reshapes creative work. Employers in the survey were blunt: 41% plan to reduce their workforce as AI automates certain tasks.
Earlier BLS case studies: AI-exposed jobs, projected change 2023-33
| Occupation | Projected change | What BLS said about AI |
|---|---|---|
| Software developers | +17.9% | AI helps write, test and document code and adds demand for AI systems |
| Personal financial advisors | +17.1% | Robo-advisors compete, but demand for human advisors stays strong |
| Lawyers | +5.2% | About as fast as average |
| Paralegals and legal assistants | +1.2% | Slower than average; AI speeds up document review |
| Credit analysts | -3.9% | Projected decline |
| Claims adjusters, examiners and investigators | -4.4% | Projected decline |
| Insurance appraisers, auto damage | -9.2% | Largest decline in the case studies |
That table, from a BLS case study published March 11, 2025, shows the nuance. Exposure to AI does not automatically mean job loss. Software developers are among the most exposed workers, yet BLS projected strong growth because AI also creates demand for people who build and maintain AI systems. The jobs most at risk are those where AI can do the core task and demand for the service does not grow.
Which jobs are growing anyway
The fastest-growing occupations in the 2025-35 projections are mostly jobs that require hands, judgment and human contact, plus the technical roles that build the AI economy. Nurse practitioners lead all detailed occupations at 41.0%. Solar photovoltaic installers follow at 36.5%, data scientists at 34.6%, wind turbine service technicians at 29.5% and computer and information research scientists at 21.8%.
Fastest-growing occupations, projected change 2025-35
Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release, Aug. 27, 2026.
AI also creates jobs in industries few people connect to it. BLS projects the industry that covers computing infrastructure, data processing and web hosting to grow 25.1% and add 120,400 jobs as businesses adopt AI, and it cites AI-driven electricity demand as a factor in utility growth. Data centers need electricians, technicians and construction crews as well as engineers.
The global view: 170 million jobs created, 92 million displaced
The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, published Jan. 8, 2025, surveyed more than 1,000 companies in 22 industries and 55 economies. Employers expect technology, demographics, the green transition and economic pressure together to create 170 million jobs and displace 92 million by 2030, a net gain of 78 million. Job disruption will touch 22% of jobs.
Global jobs outlook to 2030 (WEF survey)
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025. Figures cover all macro trends, not AI alone.
The report’s bigger warning is about skills. Employers expect nearly 40% of the skills required on the job to change, and 63% call the skills gap the main barrier to transforming their business. If the world’s workforce were 100 people, 59 would need training by 2030, and 11 of them are unlikely to get it. The good news: 77% of employers plan to upskill their workers, and almost half expect to move staff from AI-exposed roles into other parts of the business.
If the global workforce were 100 people: training needs by 2030
- 48%Need training and are likely to get it
- 11%Need training but unlikely to get it
- 41%Do not need retraining
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025. The WEF says the 11 who are unlikely to be trained equal more than 120 million workers at medium-term risk of redundancy.
How many businesses actually use AI today
Adoption is growing but far from universal. The Census Bureau reported on May 26, 2026 that 19.8% of U.S. businesses used AI to produce goods or services as of May 3, 2026, within a range of 17% to 20% since mid-December 2025. Use is highest in large firms: 37% of firms with at least 250 employees reported AI use. Among firms with fewer than 20 employees, use did not change significantly, and fewer than 20% of firms with four or fewer employees used it.
Businesses using AI, by sector (as of May 3, 2026)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey, story published May 26, 2026.
That gap matters for workers and owners. Jobs change first where AI is used most, which today means information, finance and large companies. Small businesses have time to plan, but the tools are cheap and improving, so waiting carries its own risk. Our ChatGPT for small business guide and AI agents explainer show what the tools can do today.
How workers can protect their careers
Five moves for workers worried about AI
- List your tasks, not your titleWrite down what you do each week. Routine, rules-based tasks are the ones AI absorbs first; judgment, relationships and hands-on work last longest.
- Learn the tools in your fieldUse the AI assistants your employer allows. Workers who can direct AI and check its output become more valuable, not less.
- Build the human skills employers rank highThe WEF lists analytical thinking, resilience, leadership and collaboration among the core skills alongside AI and data skills.
- Look at growing fields next doorHealthcare, skilled trades, energy and data work are projected to grow. Short certificates can bridge the gap.
- Use free public helpCalifornia’s America’s Job Center of California offices, community colleges and libraries offer career counseling and training, often at no cost.
What small business owners should do
For a small employer, the question is less “will AI replace my staff” and more “which hours can AI give back.” Most small firms cannot afford to lose good people, and the WEF survey shows the most common employer response is training, not layoffs.
Automate the task, redeploy the person. When an AI tool takes over invoicing reminders, appointment booking or first drafts of marketing copy, move that employee’s time to sales, customer service or quality work that grows revenue. Write a short AI use policy first: what data staff may enter, which tools are approved and who checks the output.
Owners should also track hiring rules. AI tools that screen resumes or rank applicants can create bias and legal risk, so keep a human in every hiring decision. If you are building your team, our solopreneur guide covers when to use contractors and when to hire.
Common mistakes
- Treating exposure as job loss. A job that uses AI heavily can still grow, as software development shows.
- Trusting viral numbers. Claims that AI will erase half of all jobs are not backed by BLS projections; check the source and the period.
- Waiting for certainty. BLS itself calls the uncertainty very high. Build skills now rather than after your role changes.
- Automating without a policy. Staff pasting customer data into public chatbots creates privacy and security risk.
- Cutting people before testing tools. AI output needs review; savings often come from faster work, not fewer workers.
Key terms
- Generative AI: software that produces text, images, code or audio from a prompt, such as ChatGPT or Gemini.
- AI exposure: how many of a job’s tasks AI can assist with or perform; high exposure does not by itself mean the job will disappear.
- Job displacement: jobs removed by a change in technology or the economy, which may be offset by new jobs elsewhere.
- Upskilling: training workers in new skills for their current or a related role.
- Employment projections: BLS estimates of jobs by occupation and industry 10 years ahead, updated every year.
The bottom line: AI will replace some jobs, most clearly in routine office and administrative work, but the data to 2035 points to more change than loss. Workers who learn the tools and lean into human skills, and owners who automate tasks while retraining people, are best placed for what comes next.
Free help in the Sacramento region
You do not have to work through these decisions alone. SCORE Sacramento pairs owners with volunteer mentors, many of them retired executives, bankers and accountants, at no cost. The Sacramento Valley Small Business Development Center offers free one-on-one advising on financing, budgeting and financial statements. The SBA’s Sacramento District Office can explain loan programs and connect you with lenders, and community lenders such as California Capital and Opening Doors serve owners who need smaller loans or extra support. Browse our Business Resources and the free business help guide for more.
Key takeaways
- BLS projects U.S. employment to grow 3.5%, or 5.9 million jobs, from 2025 to 2035.
- Office and administrative support is projected to lose 752,100 jobs (-4.0%), the largest decline of any group, as generative AI spreads.
- Nurse practitioners (+41.0%) and data scientists (+34.6%) are among the fastest-growing jobs.
- The WEF expects 170 million jobs created and 92 million displaced worldwide by 2030; 77% of employers plan to upskill.
- As of May 2026, 19.8% of U.S. businesses used AI, led by large firms and the information sector.
Frequently asked questions
Will AI replace jobs?
AI will replace some jobs and change many more. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 5.9 million more U.S. jobs from 2025 to 2035, but expects office and administrative support to shrink by 752,100 jobs as generative AI and automation spread.
Which jobs are most at risk from AI?
Routine office and administrative support work is most at risk, followed by some sales, arts and media roles. Earlier BLS case studies also projected declines for credit analysts, claims adjusters and auto damage insurance appraisers.
Which jobs are safest from AI?
Jobs that need hands-on work, human judgment and personal contact are growing fastest. Nurse practitioners lead the BLS 2025-35 projections at 41 percent, followed by solar installers and data scientists.
How many jobs will AI create?
The World Economic Forum expects technology and other trends to create 170 million jobs and displace 92 million worldwide by 2030, a net gain of 78 million. Those totals cover all major trends, not AI alone.
How many businesses use AI right now?
The Census Bureau reported that 19.8 percent of U.S. businesses used AI to produce goods or services as of May 3, 2026. Use was highest among firms with 250 or more employees, at 37 percent.
Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Projections 2025-2035 news release (USDL-26-1422, Aug. 27, 2026)
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Artificial intelligence (AI) impacts on employment projections
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily: AI impacts in BLS employment projections (March 11, 2025)
- World Economic Forum: Future of Jobs Report 2025, press release (Jan. 8, 2025)
- U.S. Census Bureau: Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users (May 26, 2026)
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